Shopify forecasts quarterly revenue above estimates on resilient demand

Highlights from the Quarter

• Shopify reported revenue of $2.68 billion USD in Q2 2025, surpassing analyst expectations by $130 million USD[2].
• Net income reached $906 million USD, marking a significant turnaround from a $682 million USD net loss in Q1[1][2].
• Gross profit for the quarter was $1.3 billion USD, up from $1.1 billion in the previous quarter[1].
• Gross merchandise volume (GMV) climbed to $87.8 billion USD—a 16% increase versus Q1—with especially strong growth reported in Europe[1].
• Operating income rose nearly 19% year-over-year to $291 million USD[1].
• Shopify continued its eight-quarter streak of double-digit free cash flow margins, posting 16% in Q2[1].

Regional and Segment Performance

Shopify’s Chief Financial Officer, Jeff Hoffmeister, stated in a press release that both GMV and revenue growth rates accelerated quarter over quarter in North America, Europe, and Asia Pacific, demonstrating broad-based demand resilience despite ongoing trade-related pressures[1].

Outlook for Q3 2025 and Beyond

• For Q3 2025, Shopify expects revenue growth in the mid- to high-twenties percentage range (year-over-year)[2].
• Gross profit growth is projected in the low twenties, while free cash flow margin is forecasted to be in the mid- to high teens[1].
• Operating expenses are expected to account for 38-39% of revenue in the coming quarter[2].

Analyst Forecasts and Investor Sentiment

According to Wall Street analysts, the consensus one-year price target for Shopify Inc. stock is $132.95, with a high estimate of $175.00 and a low of $87.64[2]. The average recommendation from 48 brokerage firms rates the stock at 2.2 (on a scale of 1 = Strong Buy to 5 = Sell), indicating expected outperformance[2].

The GF Value model from GuruFocus estimates the company will be valued at $125.62 in one year, reflecting a cautious outlook amid ongoing market and macroeconomic factors[2].

Conclusion

Shopify’s Q2 2025 results reflect impressive resilience and growth, particularly as the company continues to expand internationally and deliver consistent margins. Investors remain cautiously optimistic as Shopify projects continued double-digit revenue and profit gains into the next quarter, even as global trade challenges persist.

The GF Value model from GuruFocus estimates the company will be valued at $125.62 in one year, reflecting a cautious outlook amid ongoing market and macroeconomic factors[2]. The GF Value model from GuruFocus estimates the company will be valued at $125.62 in one year, reflecting a cautious outlook amid ongoing market and macroeconomic factors[2].